Labor & Employment Law Daily Wrap Up, ECONOMIC NEWS—ICE enforcement surge tied to widespread employment losses across U.S. cities, says report, (Jun 3, 2026)

By Patricia K. Ruiz, J.D.

Brookings Institution found job declines exceeded arrests and extended beyond immigrant-heavy sectors.

A new Brookings Institution report concludes that a 2025 surge in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity corresponded with measurable employment declines across dozens of U.S. cities. The analysis, which examines employment outcomes in cities experiencing sharp increases in ICE enforcement during the first half of 2025, finds that job losses substantially exceeded the number of arrests and affected both immigrant and American-born workers. The report further identifies sector-wide contraction and broader local economic effects following enforcement increases.

Effect of enforcement activity on employment. According to the findings, employment in the 86 cities identified as experiencing the most significant surges in enforcement fell an average of 0.73 percent below expected levels in the months following increased ICE activity. In cities observed at least six months after the surge, the gap widened to 1.48 percent. The report estimates that these declines amount to approximately 668,000 jobs lost across the affected cities. ICE conducted roughly 52,000 excess arrests in those jurisdictions during the same period, with each additional arrest associated with approximately 13 lost jobs overall. Brookings researchers state that the disparity between arrests and job losses reflects a broader economic disruption rather than a direct one-to-one relationship between detained workers and employment vacancies.

Effects on non-immigrant workers; sector-level impacts. The analysis further indicates that job losses were not limited to immigrant workers. Of the estimated 668,000 positions lost, between 51,000 and 297,000 are estimated to have been held by American-born workers. Sector-level impacts varied, with the most pronounced losses occurring in industries with higher concentrations of immigrant labor, including construction and accommodation and food services. At the sector level, construction employment fell by an average of 2.2 percent following enforcement increases, compared to 0.73 percent across all sectors, reflecting deeper losses in certain industries relative to overall employment declines.

However, the report also identifies employment declines in sectors with relatively few immigrant workers, such as arts and entertainment, indicating broader spillover effects. The report characterizes the observed employment effects as extending beyond direct labor removal, noting simultaneous reductions in workforce participation, business activity, and consumer demand within impacted local economies.

Methodology. The enforcement campaign analyzed in the report began in January 2025 and represented a marked shift in scale and approach. ICE carried out large volumes of arrests, including community-based operations, worksite actions, and other visible enforcement tactics. Between January 2025 and February 2026, the agency made approximately 380,000 arrests, with a substantial share occurring outside custodial settings. Brookings states that the findings reflect short-term economic effects within the analyzed cities and are based on available data through September 2025.

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