IP Law Daily, VITAL BRIEFING—Soybeans move onto center stage in tariff discussions, (Oct 24, 2025)

By Brad Rosen, J.D.

Although China had made heavy purchases of the 2024 U.S. soybean crop early in the year in anticipation of tariffs being imposed on its goods, China has not bought any soybeans from the 2025 U.S. harvest thus far.

In this installment of Tariffs Insights, Thomas Thompson writes about the plight of the U.S. soybean market as the prolonged trade war over tariffs with China persists, with the Chinese effectively taking a pass on purchasing U.S. product. As Thompson observes, U.S. losses on this score appears to result in significant gains for Brazil and Argentina as Chinese soybean imports approaches historical levels.

While the Brazilians have exported nearly 11 million tons of soybeans to China, 30% more than last year at this time, Argentina has ramped up its exports with over a million tons be exported, a 90% gain compared to a similar time period for 2024. Together, the two South American countries accounted for 95% of the record level of soybean purchases by China.

Thompson also explores the downstream effects of China’s near absence from U.S. agricultural markets. He notes that this year’s falloff in farm income is pressuring equipment manufacturers like John Deere and Caterpillar. Deere has seen decreased demand and lower order volumes for its farm equipment, which has already resulted in layoffs. Meanwhile, Caterpillar has seen its operating profit tumble 18%, which it attributed to “unfavorable manufacturing costs,” also the result of higher tariffs.

On a brighter side, Thompson notes that the futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade recently saw a modest increase in soybean futures in the area of 1.25%. That suggests the market may be anticipating a thaw in the U.S.- China tariff war in the near term.

To read the article, click Soybeans move onto center stage in tariff discussions.

News: IndustryNewsTrends