Securities Regulation Daily Wrap Up, EXCHANGES AND MARKET REGULATION—CFTC’s Selig: “We’re so close” on Clarity Act, (Jul 10, 2026)
Selig gave a positive view on the chance of passage for the Clarity Act and was also confident that the CFTC will finalize prediction markets rules in the coming months.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is optimistic that the Clarity Act will pass the Senate, indicating in a July 8 interview on Fox Business that there is broad bipartisan agreement. Selig also discussed a range of other topics with host Maria Bartiromo, including prediction markets and market impacts of the Iran war.
Bartiromo said some analysts have given the Clarity Act a 50/50 shot of passing by an August 7 deadline. The legislation passed the House last year but has bogged down in the Senate. Broadly, it would establish a regulatory framework for crypto assets. According to Bartiromo, obstacles include ethics rules, the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, and stablecoin yields.
Selig was hopeful when asked if the Clarity Act will get over the finish line.
“We’re so close,” he said. “We have to get this done. It’s absolutely critical that we have a federal standard for crypto assets.”
“Right now we’ve dealt with a patchwork of state laws and regulations, and it’s really been bad for business here in the United States,” he added.
Asked if the Democrats are holding up the legislation over ethics concerns, Selig said there has been “mission creep.”
“I do think there’s a little bit of this creep into ethics and other types of extraneous issues,” he said. “And they’re just derailing this real opportunity to have a bipartisan bill in place.”
Bartiromo also asked Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) about the Clarity Act negotiations. Lummis chairs the Digital Assets Subcommittee of the Senate Banking Committee.
“It’s been an arduous process,” said Lummis. She said they’re still working “a little bit” on DeFi (decentralized finance) and ethics.
Lummis later posted on social media to lament a lack of progress.
“Leaving digital asset rules unsettled has not protected anyone,” she wrote in a July 10 post on X. “Instead, it’s left consumers and the industry vulnerable and has pushed innovation, investment, and jobs somewhere with clearer answers.”
Prediction markets. Turning to the astronomical rise of prediction markets, Bartiromo said that Polymarket and Kalshi processed $24 billion in trading volume, a 10-fold increase from the prior year, and 40 percent of men in the U.S. have reportedly entered into an event contract. With volume potentially hitting a trillion dollars in 2030, Bartiromo asked where prediction markets are going.
“The point here is that this is a market that’s here to stay, just like crypto,” said Selig. “And we need to get clearer rules of the road in place. And that’s exactly what the CFTC is working towards.”
Selig said that CFTC rules that were proposed several weeks ago will be finalized “within the coming months.” A core proposed amendment to Rule 40.11 would strengthen the ability of the CFTC to restrict contracts on war, terrorism, assassination, and gaming. The CFTC has also proposed rules on transaction reporting for prediction markets, he said.
On the CFTC’s litigation against several states over regulation of prediction markets, Selig said “it’s absolutely critical that the CFTC maintains its regulatory authority over these markets.”
“The president has said it, I have said it,” he said. “We’re going to continue to fight to make sure that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction when it comes to derivatives instruments that involve all manner of commodities.”
“We’ve sued nine states now, and we’ll continue to sue any state that attempts to impose criminal or civil fines against CFTC-registered exchanges,” he added.
He said the CFTC is looking forward to the Supreme Court weighing in and is optimistic on winning in the circuit courts.
Expansion of prediction markets. Asked about the future for prediction markets beyond sports trading, which currently predominates, Selig said that as with crypto, prediction markets may expand beyond narrow original use cases.
He said “we’re excited to see” the further development of prediction markets on single-stock futures and index-based contracts.
“I think this can be a really interesting hedging tool for all manner of participants,” he said. For example, a Tesla stock owner could use an event contract to hedge the risk of car production.
Market impact of Iran war. Noting that President Trump has declared the U.S. ceasefire with Iran over and the U.S. has resumed strikes against Iran, Bartiromo asked about the impact of the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz activity on markets.
Selig said there has been a lot of volatility on contracts relating to oil and fertilizer, and that prediction markets and futures markets have “worked very well together” to allow participants to hedge risk.
“The CFTC is to ensure that the markets are well-functioning, that they’re running efficiently, that they have integrity,” he said.
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